Preservation of Capital: The Name of the Game

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirments are speculative." Benjamin Graham, the Intelligent Investor

Although big market gains get the headlines, preserving your capital is the name of the game!

Protecting the Downside

If there's one common denominator of successful insiders, it's that they don't speculate with their hard-earned savings, they strategize. Remember Warren Buffett's top two rules for investing? Rule 1: don't lose money! Rule 2: see rule 1. 

Taking a swing for the fences with no downside protection is a recipe for disaster. But can it be possible for normal investors to have upside without downside - to have protection of principal with major upside potential?  Following the 2008 crash, when people didn't have much of an appetite for stocks, some very innovative minds at the world's largest banks figured out a way to do the seemingly impossible: allow you and me to participate in the gains of the stock market without risking any of our principal!

We have come to a point in the United States where most of us feel that the only option for us to grow our wealth involves taking huge risks. We somehow take solace in the fact that everyone is in the same boat. Well, guess what? It's not true! Not everyone is in the same boat!

There are much more comfortable boats out on the water that are anchored in the proverbial safe harbor, while others are getting pounded in the waves of volatility and taking on water quick.

So, who owns the boats in the harbor? The insiders. The wealthy. The 1%. Those not willing to speculate with their hard-earned money. But make no mistake: you don't have to be in the .001% to strategize like the .001%.

Who Doesn't Want to Eat The Cake Too?

In the investment world, having your cake and eating it too would be making money when the market goes up but not losing a dime if the market drops. Below are three proven strategies with a brief explanation for achieving strong returns while anchored firmly in calmer waters.

1. Structured Notes. These are probably one of the more exciting tools available today, but, unfortunately, they are rarely offered to the general public because the high-net-worth investors jump on them before anyone else has a chance. A structured note is simply a loan to a bank (and typically the largest banks in the world). the bank issues you a note in exchange for lending it your money. At the end of the term, the bank guarantees to pay you the greater of: 100% of your deposit back or a certain percentage of the upside of the market gains (minus the dividends). 
2. Market-Linked CDs. These aren't your grandparent's CDs. In today's day and age, with interest rates so low, traditional CDs can't keep pace with inflation. Traditional CDs are very profitable for the banks because they can turn around and lend your money at 10 to 20 times the interest rate they are paying you. Another version of the insider's game. Market-linked CDs are similar to structured notes, but they include insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Market-linked CDs give you some small guaranteed return (a coupon) if the market goes up, but you also get to participate in the upside. But if the market falls, you get back your investment (plus your small return), and you had FDIC insurance the entire time. 
3. Fixed Indexed Annuities. There are a lot of annuity products out there, and some should be avoided. But this particular type is used by insiders as yet another tool to create upside without the downside. A properly structured fixed indexed annuity offers the following characteristics:

• 100% principal protection, guaranteed by the insurance company. 
• Upside without downside - like structured notes and market-linked CDs, a fixed indexed annuity allows youth participate when the market goes up but not lose if the market goes down. All gains are tax deferred.
• Lastly, and probably most importantly, some fixed indexed annuities offer the ability to create an income stream that you can't outlive. A paycheck for life! Think of this investment as your own personal pension. 

As always, be careful when choosing these products. Some have high fees, high commissions, hidden charges, and on and on. $

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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Unexpected Health Care Needs and Costs

Unexpected health care costs are a major concern. Employers continue to cut back on post-retirement health care benefits. Low-income retirees may spend a large percentage of their resources on health care. Medicaid does provide assistance for the poor.

Medical technology improvements that extend life may increase care costs.

Uncertainty over implementation of reform measures is hampering current retirement planning.

Predictability

Health care costs are:

• Relatively easy to predict for a large group over a limited time.
• Hard to predict for individuals.
• Very hard to predict far into the future.

However, the cost and benefit structure impacts of health care reform should be more predictable now that the new health care reforms are fully implemented.

Managing the Risk

Medicare is the primary source of coverage for post-65 retirees. Supplemental coverage is available from employer plans and individual Medigap policies or HMOs.

Other federal or state/local programs may assist low-income retirees.

Instead of retiring from a job with health benefits, employees may choose to keep working, at least part-time, in a job that will allow them to remain covered.

Wide varieties of "discount benefit plans" are available for typical non-covered services such as dental or vision care. Regulators have had to clamp down on marketing practices to keep consumers from mistaking such discount arrangements for insurance coverage.

Medical travel or even migration to other countries has gained popularity as a way for consumers to reduce their cost for care. Costly surgery covered in the United States by normal insurance is available elsewhere at lower out-of-pocket cost, although there may be added risk.

Conclusion

Future resource requirements are hard to predict because a high level of uncertainty exists about the future design of Medicare and other changes in health policy and operation of health exchanges.

In a typical group, a small percentage of individuals usually account for a large percentage of the group's overall health care costs.

It's not too late for retirees to reduce their risk of major health problems by lifestyle changes involving diet, exercise, smoking, etc.$

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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Employment

Many retirees plan to supplement their income by working at a bridge job part-time or full-time.

Today's jobs often make few physical demands and may even be done at home. Some organizations prefer to workers because of their stability and life experience. But success in the job market may also call for technical skills that retirees cannot easily gain or maintain. Training and retraining have become increasingly important for those who want to work at older ages.

Predictability

Employment prospects among retirees vary greatly because of demands for different skills, and can change with health, family or economic conditions.

About half of all retirees retire earlier than planned, often because of job loss or poor health.

Managing the Risk

Retirement plans rarely allow for phased retirement, so a bridge job usually means working for a new employer. Re-hiring of retirees also is growing more common. These kinds of jobs often have lower pay or benefits.

Postponing retirement may be the most powerful way for workers to improve their retirement security. This allows retirement savings to keep growing while the workers accumulate more benefits from Social Security and retirement programs. Medicare-eligible retirees can take a job knowing that they will have health care coverage, even if the employer does not offer it.

Conclusion

Retirement planning should not rely heavily on income from a bridge job.

Many retirees welcome the chance to change careers and move into an area with less pay but more job satisfaction, or fewer demands on their time and energy. However, it may be difficult to find jobs in tight employment markets.

Terminating employment before age 65 may make it difficult to find a source of affordable health insurance before Medicare is available. Note that COBRA coverage usually ends after 18 months (36 months if disabled). As of 2014, health care coverage is available through state exchanges (most states).$
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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: The Stock Market

Stock market losses can seriously reduce retirement savings. But common stocks have substantially outperformed other investments over time, and thus are often recommended for retirees' long-term investments as part of a long-term investment mix.

Predictability

Individual stocks rise and fall based on the outlook for the stock market and the specific company. Individual stocks are more volatile than a diversified portfolio.


Stock index funds are diversified, but they still are exposed to the ups and downs of the stock market.


Managing the Risk

Stock market investors should diversify widely among investment classes and individual securities, and be prepared to absorb possible losses. Because it may take many years to recover losses, older employees and retirees should be especially careful to limit their stock market exposure.


A variety of polled investment "funds" exist, ranging from mutual funds and exchange-traded funds to managed accounts to hedge funds.


Hedge funds, which are private investment funds that participate in a range of assets and a variety of investment strategies, may offer some protection, but they can be complex and have high expense charges.


Stock funds offer opportunities to invest in both U.S. companies and international stocks.


Conclusion

Some financial products let an individual invest in stocks and guarantee against loss of principal. However, expenses on these products may be high, and the financial firm may limit losses by shifting most funds to bonds, thus reducing the stock exposure.


Younger workers can afford to take more risks because they have time to make up short-term losses and can postpone retirement. Older individuals might want to allocate a smaller proportion of assets to the stock market.


Target-date (or "life-cycle") funds gradually shift some of their assets out of stocks as the investor gets older. In target-date funds designed by different fund managers, the allocation to stocks at a given age varies. Proposed regulations would increase disclosure to consumers about target-date funds to bolster understanding of what these funds do and don't do.


When significant personal assets are in company stock, the risk of job loss is compounded by possible loss of savings if the company does poorly or goes out of business. Even if a company appears strong, it is safer to diversify those assets among other investments.$


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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Interest Rates

Lower interest rates tend to reduce retirement income in several ways:

• Workers must save more to accumulate an adequate retirement fund.
• Retirees earn less spendable income on investments such as CDs and bonds; any income reinvested earns lower rates.
• Payout annuities yield less income when long-term interest rates are low at the time of purchase.

Predictability

Long-term and short-term interest rates can vary within a wide range. Underlying forces that drive interest rates include expected inflation, government actions and business conditions.




Managing The Risk

Income annuities provide retirees with a guaranteed fixed income, despite changes in the interest rate environment, but most do not adjust the income for inflation.


Prevailing interest rates will impact the amount of annuity payout the retiree can purchase from a given lump sum.


Investing in long-term bonds, mortgages or dividend-paying stocks also offers protection against lower interest rates, although the value of these investments will fluctuate. The risk is that rising interest rates will reduce the value of such assets available to meet unexpected needs.




Conclusion

Long-term interest rates often move up or down at about the same rate of inflation.


Higher real interest returns, above rates of inflation, usually make retirement more affordable. this occurs when retirees' assets include sizeable amounts of interest-paying bonds, CDs, etc.


However, some retirees have adjustable-rate mortgages or substantial consumer debt, so higher interest rates are an added burden. For such retirees, the higher interest rates that accompany increased inflation may reduce their spendable income just when it's most needed.


Low interest rates in some recent years make it clear that retirees relying on income from interest-bearing investments are subject to interest rate risk.$




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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Inflation

Inflation should be an ongoing concern for anyone living on a fixed income. In the recent era of relatively low inflation, workers may not know about or remember the double-digit inflation of 1947, 1974 or 1979-81. Even low rates of inflation can seriously erode the well-being of retirees who live many years.

Predictability

Average past inflation can be calculated from historical data, although actual experience over a typical period of retirement may vary widely. Past inflation data can provide some help in estimating retirement needs, but there is no guarantee that future inflation will match historical experience.

Managing the Risk

Many investors try to own some assets whose value may grow in times of inflation. However, this sometimes results in trading inflation risk for investment risk.

Investment returns from common stocks have increased more rapidly than consumer prices in the long run. But in the short term, stocks don't offer reliable protection against inflation. The historically higher returns from stocks are not guaranteed and may very greatly during retirement years.

Inflation-indexed Treasury bonds grow in value and provide more income as the Consumer Price Index goes up. Many experts say that retirees' investments should include some of these securities.

Inflation-indexed annuities, not widely used in the United States, adjust payments for inflation up to a specified annual limit. Annuities with a predefined annual increase also are available. These kinds of annuities cost more than fixed-payment annuities with the same initial level of income.

Investments in natural resources and other commodities often rise in value during periods of long-term inflation, but the values may fluctuate widely in the short run.

Conclusion

Inflation can be a major issue, especially as retirement periods lengthen. Inflation is not highly predictable.

Retirees can set aside assets that will permit a gradual increase in consumption.

Providing for expected inflation one way or another, although costly, is needed in any realistic plan for managing resources in retirement.

Delaying receipt of Social Security will build up valuable inflation-indexed benefits for retirees and spouses.

When housing values were increasing, homeowners seemed to have a hedge against inflation, but this has not been true in recent years.

Current and future retirees who have expected to use their home equity as a source of retirement income may be sorely disappointed, especially if housing values continue to decline. Strategies that rely on increases in the value of housing and selling quickly are very risky, since the value may not rise and it may take a long time to sell the house.$

Next Risk: Interest Rates

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Managing Post-Retirement Risks: Longevity

The past decade has seen not only economic uncertainty and volatility, but also an increased emphasis on individuals taking responsibility for securing their financial well-being in retirement. As a result, today's retirees may be exposed to a variety of risks that can affect them both as individuals and as members of society.

Longevity: Outliving Retirement Resources

Managing one's own retirement funds over a lifetime has many pitfalls, even with expert help. Nobody knows how long the money must last.

Life expectancy at retirement is an average, with some retirees living longer and a few living past 100. Counting on living only to a certain age is risky, and planning to live to the average life expectancy for someone their age will be inadequate for about half of retirees. In theory, retirees want to make sure their money will last a lifetime without cutting back on expenditures or reducing their standard of living. In practice, unexpected events may make this very difficult.

A licensed insurer is the only entity outside the government that can contractually guarantee to pay lifetime income. However, purchasing an annuity involves trade-offs; the household must give up the account balance to purchase the income stream. Financial products from firms that aren't in the insurance business could run out of money to pay income to a long-lived individual.

Predictability

Long lifetimes are difficult to predict for individuals. It's easier to predict the percentage of a population with a long life than to do so for an individual. In the total population, women live longer than men and wives outlive husbands in most cases.

Longevity has increased over time. Any medical breakthroughs could bring additional improvement.

Managing the Risk

Social Security, traditional pensions and immediate payout annuities all promise to pay an individual a specified amount of income for life. In addition, they may also pay income to the surviving spouse or other named survivor. Some newer products can help protect retirees from outliving their assets.

Deferred variable annuities and indexed annuities can include guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits that guarantee the availability of annual withdrawals up to a specified amount, even after withdrawals have exhausted the account value.

"Longevity insurance" is an annuity that guarantees a specified income amount but does not start paying benefits until an advanced age, such as 85. This niche product may fit into a carefully designed financial plan.

"Managed payout" plans, offered in several forms by financial services firms, enable the retiree to draw down assets gradually. Lifetime income from such plans is not guaranteed, but is set at a level that provides a high probability that income can be received for many years, e.g., to age 90. In some cases, a "contingent deferred annuity" can be added to guarantee that the income payments will continue for a lifetime.

A Reverse Mortgage can convert home equity into ongoing monthly income as long as the homeowner lives in the home. Administrative charges for these mortgages can be high.

Conclusion

"Payout annuities," also called immediate annuities or income annuities, can be useful for retirees because they maximize the amount of guaranteed lifetime income available from a sum of money.

Some mutual fund companies are offering "annuity alternative" arrangements to ensure liquidity in retirement with cash/mutual fund structures that can be blended with annuities.

An annuity that seems unattractive to buy at retirement age may make sense later. Multiple annuity purchases can be made over time to average interest rates inherent in their purchase prices. People generally should not annuitize all their assets, but they may want to consider annuities in their overall retirement plan.

Financial projections can be very useful in retirement planning , but actual experience will differ. All retirees should review their expected income needs and sources at least every few years and adjust spending if necessary.

Reverse mortgages can help to mitigate risk in some cases, but they may also increase it in others. Care is needed in the use of these products. The mortgage proceeds can be paid in a lump sum, as a monthly income, or as a line of credit.

Annuities and reverse mortgages differ in an important way. When interest rates are higher, you get higher monthly payments when you buy an annuity. In contrast, when interest rates are higher, you get lower monthly payments if you take out a reverse mortgage.

Retired individuals with outstanding mortgages can effectively improve their monthly cash flow by replacing the conventional mortgage with a reverse mortgage, using the lump sum proceeds of the reverse mortgage to pay off the conventional mortgage.$

Next up: Inflation

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